Ukraine’s real GDP rose 2.5% in 2017

Ukraine’s real GDP rose 2.5% in 2017
Ukraine's growth for 2017 revised upwards to 2.5% y/y / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews March 23, 2018

Ukraine’s real GDP rose 2.5% in 2017, the State Statistics Service reported on March 21, after revising its growth estimate upwards.

Economic growth was driven by investment in 2017, which increased 18.2% y/y (vs. 20.4% y/y in 2016). Private consumption growth accelerated to 7.8% y/y from 2.1% y/y in 2016, playing a bigger role in GDP growth.

Real GDP grew 2.8% y/y (0.1% q/q) in 1Q17, 2.6% y/y (0.8% q/q) in 2Q17, 2.4% y/y (0.5% q/q) in 3Q17 and 2.2% (0.5% q/q) y/y in the fourth quarter of 2017.

The contribution of net exports remained negative in 2017 with real export growth of 3.5% y/y (following a decrease of 1.8% y/y in 2016) being outpaced by a 12.2% y/y rise in real imports (19.4% y/y in 2016).

On the production side, the growth was led by manufacturing (5.1% y/y), construction (26.9% y/y) and trade (5.0% y/y), while declines in agriculture (-2.5% y/y) and mining (-5.9% y/y) were restraining factors. The GDP deflator amounted to 22.0% (vs. 17.1% in 2016).

“The GDP statistics for both the fourth quarter of 2017 and full-year 2017 proved to be a positive surprise in exceeding preliminary state estimates that shot for 2.1% for 2017, which assumed a stronger slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.8% y/y growth,” Evgeniya Akhtyrko of Concorde Capital said in a note.

“Apparently, a fall in agriculture (-6.4% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2017), caused by a drop in the grain harvest, turned out to be less severe than previously estimated, while the situation in mining, harmed by a trade blockade with occupied Donbas, improved faster than expected (-7.2% y/y in 1Q17, -5.4% y/y in 2Q17, -6.2% y/y in 3Q17, -5.0% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2017),” Akhtyrko added. “For 2018, we anticipate economic growth accelerating to 3.3% y/y.”

Data

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