Ukraine’s retail sales increased by 5.5% year-on-year in real terms in January-September, slightly speeding up from a 5.0% y/y growth in January-August, according to the nation’s state statistics service Ukrstat.
In September alone, real retail sales picked up 6.7% y/y, but dropped 5.0% month-on-month (vs. a 7.5% y/y and 5.7% m/m rise in August).
Regionally, the highest retail growth occurred in Ukraine-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk (27.9% y/y and 13.7% y/y respectively) and Poltava 11.1% regions in January-September. It was slowest in the Kharkiv (1.0%), Chernivtsi (1.2%), and Khmelnytskiy (1.3%) regions.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital believes that retail trade to accelerate through the year end, supporting economic growth. She expects real retail sales to grow 7-8% y/y in 2018.