Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.1% year-on-year in July-September, the Ukrstat state statistics agency in Kyiv reported on November 14.
According to official data, Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.3% y/y across April-June. In the first quarter, Ukraine's GDP grew by 2.5% y/y. Ukraine's economy grew 2.3% y/y in 2016 owing to booming investments in fixed assets (20.1% y/y growth) and reviving private consumption (1.8% y/y).
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its economic forecast for this year upward from 1.6% y/y to 2.2% y/y saying that the nation's economic growth in 2017 will be stronger than expected. This was the result of a more favourable than expected effect from both internal and external factors on the economic performance of most sectors in the second and the third quarters of the year. High commodity prices, especially steel prices, added to revenues.
GDP growth is expected by the central bank to speed up to 3.2% and 3.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
In April, the NBU revised its 2017 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.9% growth year-on-year due to expectations that the trade blockade in eastern Ukraine and the loss of the production facilities in the rebel-held areas in the Donbas region will decrease the output of some industries.
Then, in July, the NBU revised its 2017 forecast downwards even further to 1.6%. The move was attributed to the poor economic performance in the first half of the year, primarily in services, and the revised crop yields assessments. Industries most susceptible to the severance of production ties with the rebel-held Donbas territories - the mining and metals sector, energy and transport – were predicted to underperform.