Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital expects real retail sales will maintain a growth rate of 7-8% year-on-year in 2018, while private consumption will be the major contributor to economic growth.
According to official data, retail sales in real terms increased by 7% y/y in January-April compared to 7.6% y/y growth in January-March.
In January-April, retail sales grew 5.8% y/y. Regionally, the highest growth occurred in the Vinnytsia (11.1% y/y growth), Zakarpattia (9.2% y/y) and Sumy (8.9% y/y) regions, while Rivne (2.6% y/y), Chernivtsi (3.3% y/y) and Zaporizhia (3.5% y/y) were the slowest.
"We don’t expect further slowing in retail sales this year," Concorde's Evgeniya Akhtyrko wrote n a note on May 22. "Amid the continuing growth of real disposable income, the consumption by Ukrainians will continue to grow at least to compensate their thrifty consumer behaviour during the economic collapse in 2014-15."