The real sector confidence index in September fell below to 100-mark line, which separates optimistic and pessimistic outlook, for the first time since December 2012, data of the central bank showed on September 28. The index declined, for a second consecutive month, to 99.1 in September from 103.7 in August on businesses’ negative assessments of the total current orders, production volume in the next three months, total employment, general business situation, export orders for the next three months, capital expenditures and past orders.
Confidence indices have been recently suggesting deterioration in the expectations of the economic players, however, the latest data indicated the seriousness of the situation and raised concerns regarding the growth performance in the remainder of the year.
In September, seven of total eight sub-indices pointed deterioration in the business sentiment, except the sub-index measuring current inventories.
The central bank also reported that on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the business confidence index also declined from a revised 102.6 in August to 99.3 in September.
|
Reel Sector Confidence Index |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec-13 |
Dec-14 |
Jan-15 |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Reel Sector Confidence Index |
102.1 |
101.2 |
103.2 |
103.4 |
103.5 |
107.9 |
109.0 |
104.9 |
105.4 |
103.7 |
99.1 |
|
Total amount of orders (Current situation) |
91.0 |
87.0 |
86.3 |
83.2 |
83.4 |
89.1 |
91.7 |
91.0 |
91.0 |
90.1 |
87.9 |
|
Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) |
94.2 |
96.4 |
96.0 |
96.9 |
93.8 |
94.4 |
92.7 |
90.7 |
94.2 |
92.9 |
95.0 |
|
Volume of output (Next 3 months) |
99.8 |
106.7 |
114.1 |
124.4 |
129.1 |
135.1 |
132.0 |
123.0 |
116.5 |
119.2 |
110.8 |
|
Total employment (Next 3 months) |
104.4 |
103.4 |
107.2 |
106.0 |
110.6 |
116.5 |
114.1 |
109.8 |
107.0 |
108.9 |
106.4 |
|
Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) |
110.3 |
102.1 |
98.0 |
86.8 |
89.3 |
103.4 |
110.6 |
114.6 |
115.2 |
109.8 |
100.9 |
|
Export orders (Next 3 months) |
108.3 |
111.3 |
118.1 |
125.4 |
127.8 |
127.7 |
126.0 |
120.2 |
119.3 |
120.1 |
114.2 |
|
Fixed investment expenditure |
110.4 |
105.8 |
106.7 |
109.7 |
105.3 |
106.5 |
106.1 |
104.2 |
105.1 |
108.2 |
103.8 |
|
General business situation |
98.6 |
97.1 |
99.5 |
94.8 |
88.3 |
90.7 |
98.8 |
85.4 |
94.6 |
80.7 |
73.6 |
|
Source: tcmb |
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