Turkish business confidence recovers in July

By bne IntelliNews July 27, 2015

The real sector confidence index recovered in July, after deteriorating sharply in June, data of the central bank showed on July 27. The headline confidence index rose to 105.4 in July from 104.9 in June on businesses’ positive assessments of the general business situation, current inventories, past orders and investment expenditures.

The sub-indices regarding the future production volume, future employment and future export orders in the next three months, on the contrary, deteriorated in July while current orders remained unchanged on a m/m basis, data showed.

The central bank also reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the business confidence index rose from 101.5 in June to 102.9 in July.

Separately, the statistics office TUIK announced on July 27 the results of its monthly confidence survey. According to TUIK, business sentiment in construction deteriorated while retail and service sectors’ confidence recovered in July.

The seasonally-adjusted service sector confidence index rose 1.4% m/m in July, after decreasing 1.2% m/m in June. The sub-index measuring demand for services in the past three months declined 1.1% m/m in the month, after remaining unchanged on a m/m basis in June.

The seasonally-adjusted retail industry confidence index that rose 0.3% m/m in June rose further by 0.7% m/m in July. Companies in the retail sector expect sales conditions to recover strongly in the next three-month while businesses surveyed by TUIK reported that their current inventories also decreased. Retail companies reported that their sales have decreased significantly in the past three months.

Confidence in the construction sector deteriorated in July. The seasonally-adjusted construction industry confidence index declined 2.8% m/m in the month, after rising a 1.6% m/m in June. The sub-index measuring the level of current orders posted a 4.4% m/m decrease in the month, after increasing 3.4% m/m in June.

Reel Sector Confidence Index                    
  2 0 1 3 2014 2014 2015            
  Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Reel Sector Confidence Index 102.1 102.7 101.2 103.2 103.4 103.5 107.9 109.0 104.9 105.4
Total amount of orders (Current situation) 91.0 88.7 87.0 86.3 83.2 83.4 89.1 91.7 91.0 91.0
Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) 94.2 98.0 96.4 96.0 96.9 93.8 94.4 92.7 90.7 94.2
Volume of output (Next 3 months) 99.8 110.1 106.7 114.1 124.4 129.1 135.1 132.0 123.0 116.5
Total employment (Next 3 months) 104.4 104.7 103.4 107.2 106.0 110.6 116.5 114.1 109.8 107.0
Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 110.3 100.8 102.1 98.0 86.8 89.3 103.4 110.6 114.6 115.2
Export orders (Next 3 months) 108.3 109.2 111.3 118.1 125.4 127.8 127.7 126.0 120.2 119.3
Fixed investment expenditure  110.4 108.4 105.8 106.7 109.7 105.3 106.5 106.1 104.2 105.1
General business situation 98.6 101.3 97.1 99.5 94.8 88.3 90.7 98.8 85.4 94.6
Source: tcmb              

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