Turkish business confidence deteriorates in June

By bne IntelliNews June 24, 2015

The real sector confidence index deteriorated, after rising in the five previous straight months, data of the central bank showed on June 23. The headline confidence index declined from 109 in May to 104.9 in June on businesses’ negative assessments of the general economic outlook, current and expected future orders. Businesses also reported an increase in their inventories in June.

The sub-indices regarding the production volume, employment and export orders in the next three months, also fell in June, data showed. The only sub-index which increased in June was orders in the past three months.

The central bank also reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the business confidence index declined to 101.5 in June from 103.9 in May.

Separately, the statistics office TUIK announced on June 24 the results of its monthly confidence survey. According to TUIK, business sentiment in service deteriorated while retail and construction sectors’ confidence recovered in June.

The seasonally-adjusted service sector confidence index declined 1.4% m/m in June, after increasing 0.2% m/m in May. The sub-index measuring demand for services in the past three months rose 0.1% m/m in the month, following a 0.6% m/m decline in May.

The seasonally-adjusted retail industry confidence index that rose 1.5% m/m in May rose 0.6% m/m in June. Companies in the retail sector expect sales conditions to deteriorate in the next three-month while businesses surveyed by TUIK reported that their current inventories increased. Retail companies reported that their sales have increased in the past three months.

Confidence in the construction sector also recovered in June. The seasonally-adjusted construction industry confidence index rose 1.6% m/m in the month, after rising a 2.9% m/m in May. The sub-index measuring the level of current orders posted a 3.4% m/m increase in the month, after increasing 3.6% m/m in May.

The outcome of Turkey's general elections has no immediate impact on its sovereign credit ratings (unsolicited foreign currency BB+/Negative/B; unsolicited local currency BBB-/Negative/A-3), said Standard & Poor’s on June 8, adding that Turkey continues to see weak GDP performance compared with previous historical norms as credit conditions have tightened, and business confidence remains muted.

Reel Sector Confidence Index                  
  2 0 1 3 2014 2014 2015          
  Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Reel Sector Confidence Index 102.1 102.7 101.2 103.2 103.4 103.5 107.9 109.0 104.9
Total amount of orders (Current situation) 91.0 88.7 87.0 86.3 83.2 83.4 89.1 91.7 91.0
Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) 94.2 98.0 96.4 96.0 96.9 93.8 94.4 92.7 90.7
Volume of output (Next 3 months) 99.8 110.1 106.7 114.1 124.4 129.1 135.1 132.0 123.0
Total employment (Next 3 months) 104.4 104.7 103.4 107.2 106.0 110.6 116.5 114.1 109.8
Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 110.3 100.8 102.1 98.0 86.8 89.3 103.4 110.6 114.6
Export orders (Next 3 months) 108.3 109.2 111.3 118.1 125.4 127.8 127.7 126.0 120.2
Fixed investment expenditure  110.4 108.4 105.8 106.7 109.7 105.3 106.5 106.1 104.2
General business situation 98.6 101.3 97.1 99.5 94.8 88.3 90.7 98.8 85.4
Source: tcmb            

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