On a calendar adjusted basis, Turkey’s industrial production rose 0.7% y/y in November versus the market consensus forecast of 2.4% y/y after increasing 2.4% y/y in the previous month. The calendar & seasonally adjusted industrial output was down 0.1% m/m (market consensus: 1.4% m/m increase), the statistics office TUIK said on January 8.
We calculated from TUIK data that the unadjusted industrial production index fell 1.2% y/y in November that compared unfavourably with the 4.5% y/y increase in the previous month. The market had expected a 0.5% y/y increase.
On a calendar adjusted basis, intermediate goods industry’s output contracted 3% y/y after rising 0.9% y/y in October while durable consumer goods fell 0.6% y/y in November versus a 4.5% y/y increase, TUIK also said. Energy production that increased 2.5% y/y in October rose another 5% y/y in the month. Manufacturing output contracted 0.2% y/y in November after rising 2.1% y/y in October.
Recall that the PMI eased from November's nine-month high of 52.2 to 51.4 in December, indicating the slowest overall growth since September. Given the PMI survey, industrial production will probably turn out to be weaker in December.
|Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (October)|
|(%)||Calendar Adjusted||Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted|
|Durable Consumer Goods||-0.6||-2.0|
|Non-durable Consumer Goods||5.0||1.6|
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