Turkey’s calendar adjusted industrial output increase eases to 0.7% y/y in November

By bne IntelliNews January 8, 2015

On a calendar adjusted basis, Turkey’s industrial production rose 0.7% y/y in November versus the market consensus forecast of 2.4% y/y after increasing 2.4% y/y in the previous month. The calendar & seasonally adjusted industrial output was down 0.1% m/m (market consensus: 1.4% m/m increase), the statistics office TUIK said on January 8.

We calculated from TUIK data that the unadjusted industrial production index fell 1.2% y/y in November that compared unfavourably with the 4.5% y/y increase in the previous month. The market had expected a 0.5% y/y increase.

On a calendar adjusted basis, intermediate goods industry’s output contracted 3% y/y after rising 0.9% y/y in October while durable consumer goods fell 0.6% y/y in November versus a 4.5% y/y increase, TUIK also said. Energy production that increased 2.5% y/y in October rose another 5% y/y in the month. Manufacturing output contracted 0.2% y/y in November after rising 2.1% y/y in October.

Recall that the PMI eased from November's nine-month high of 52.2 to 51.4 in December, indicating the slowest overall growth since September. Given the PMI survey, industrial production will probably turn out to be weaker in December.

Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (October)    
(%) Calendar Adjusted Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted
  (y/y) (m/m)
Total Industry 0.7 -0.1
Intermediate Goods -3.0 -0.8
Durable Consumer Goods -0.6 -2.0
Non-durable Consumer Goods 5.0 1.6
Energy 5.0 0.8
Capital Goods -0.4 -1.5
Source: tuik

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