Turkey’s economic growth decelerated from 2.6% y/y in Q4 to 2.3% y/y in the first quarter of 2015, however, beat the market consensus forecast of a 1.6% y/y GDP growth.
On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, Turkey’s GDP growth came in at 1.3% q/q, edging up from the 0.8% q/q in Q4/2014. On a calendar-adjusted basis, the economy grew by 2.4% in Q1 versus a revised 2.5% y/y in Q3.
Domestic demand, which accounted for 69.7% of GDP (in constant prices) in Q1, grew 4.5%, up from a 1.3% growth last year, but investments grew just 0.04%, however a better figure compared to 1.3% contraction in 2014, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on June 10. The increase in government final consumption expenditures came in at 2.5% y/y in the first quarter versus 1.7% y/y in Q4/2014 and 4.6% in 2014 as a whole. Private investments rose by 1.9% y/y in the first quarter after rising 0.5% y/y in 2014 while public investments fell by 10.2% y/y that came on top of the 8.8% y/y decline in the whole of 2014.
Exports declined by 0.3% y/y in the first quarter of 2015 versus 6.8% y/y increase in 2014 while imports increased by 4.1% y/y after registering a 0.2% y/y decline in 2014 as a whole.
On the production side; the increase in industrial output slowed to 0.04% y/y in Q1 from 1.8% y/y in Q4/2014 while manufacturing production rose 0.8% after a 2.8% y/y increase in the previous quarter. The construction sector, which the government regards as one of the main engines of economic growth, contracted by 3.5% y/y in Q1 after registering a 2% contraction in the last quarter of 2014. The wholesale & trade industry grew by 1% y/y, down from 1.5% y/y in Q4/2014, while the growth rate of the service industry accelerated to 4.1% y/y in Q1 from 3% in the previous quarter.
Turkish economy has grown 4.9% in Q1/2014. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.9% in the whole of 2014, less than the government’s 2014 target of 3.3%. This was also below the 4.2% growth rate recorded in 2013. The government expects the Turkish economy to grow by 4% this year and to create an $850bn economy but the markets foresees a more moderate GDP growth of about 3%.
|Real GDP growth by Sectors|
|Agriculture, forestry and fishing||-1.9||3.5||-2.6||-4.9||1.4||2.7|
|Mining and quarrying||5.6||7.7||8.6||4.2||2.5||-8.1|
|Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply||3.5||3.4||4.6||6.4||0.3||1.8|
|Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities||11.0||11.8||10.8||12.1||9.2||6.8|
|Wholesale and retail trade||1.4||3.2||0.2||0.8||1.5||1.0|
|Transportation and storage||2.6||3.3||2.8||3.1||1.4||1.1|
|Accomodation and food service activities||2.8||1.7||2.8||4.0||1.5||4.8|
|Information and communication||3.4||-1.5||5.5||2.8||6.6||9.2|
|Financial and insurance activities||7.0||14.0||7.1||5.2||3.0||6.7|
|Real estate activities||2.6||2.1||2.1||2.4||3.8||4.1|
|Professional, scientific and technical activities||10.8||11.7||9.7||10.8||10.7||14.0|
|Administrative and support service activities||5.5||7.1||5.2||4.7||4.9||6.2|
|Public administration and defence; compulsory social security||2.7||4.2||3.6||1.9||1.5||0.4|
|Human health and social work activities||5.7||5.1||7.0||6.3||4.4||4.5|
|Arts, entertaintment and recreation||6.9||12.4||7.4||5.6||1.9||2.3|
|Other service activities||2.1||3.3||1.6||2.2||1.5||0.1|
|Activities of household as employers||2.7||1.5||-1.8||5.9||5.3||0.8|
|Financial intermediation services indirectly measured||7.3||16.7||10.3||2.6||2.5||9.6|
|Gross domestic product (Purchaser's price)||2.9||4.9||2.3||1.9||2.6||2.3|
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