Tunisia's overall industrial activity remained in the red in April as total output contracted 1.5% y/y in April (base year 2002), albeit narrowing from a 3.2% annual decline in March, data from the statistics office showed.
The reading is a new blow to the government’s aspiration to boost GDP growth this year. The IMF forecasts Tunisia’s GDP growth to accelerate to a still subdued 2.0% in 2016 from an estimated 0.8% a year earlier. The central bank thus will likely keep its key rate on hold later this week seeking to spur growth amid still anchored CPI inflation.
The IMF forecasts Tunisia’s GDP growth to accelerate to a still subdued 2.0% in 2016 from an estimated 0.8% a year earlier.
In the first four months of 2016, Tunisia’s industrial output fell 0.9% y/y compared to a 1.0% annual decline in the same period of 2015.
Manufacturing output (67.3% of the index) contracted 3.2% y/y in April mainly on falling food production (down 4.5% y/y due to much lower production of olive oil) and that of refined oil (down 64.3% y/y). Output of textiles, clothing and leather fell 0.5% y/y in April. Chemicals production rose 11% y/y during the month.
The mining output grew 4% y/y amid soaring phosphates production. That of electricity, gas and water rose 3.4% y/y in April.
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