Serbia's 2012 CA gap widens 9.9% to EUR 3.16bn.

By bne IntelliNews March 18, 2013
Serbia's current account gap increased 9.9% to EUR 3.16bn in 2012, central bank data showed. However, its growth slowed down sharply from the 52% rise in 2011 due to a smaller increase of the foreign trade deficit as well as a smaller drop in private remittances in 2012 compared to a year earlier. The current account gap to GDP ratio equalled 11% in 2012, up from 9.2% of GDP in 2011. In 2012, exports of goods and services recorded a sluggish growth of 3.8% to EUR 12bn following a 14% rise in 2011, supported by an increase in car exports in the second half of the year with the launch of production at the Kragujevac-based Fiat plant. Imports went up 3.5% to EUR 17.2bn in 2012 - also below the 13.6% increase a year earlier. The foreign trade deficit deteriorated to EUR 5.3bn (18.5% of GDP) in 2012 from EUR 5.2bn (16.6% of GDP) in 2011. The surplus of current transfers dropped 3.4% to EUR 2.9bn in 2012, driven by a decline in private remittances (down 5.8% to EUR 2bn) for a third consecutive year. The net FDI inflow shrank to only 0.8% of GDP (EUR 232mn,their lowest value since 2002) in 2012 from over 5.9% of GDP (EUR 1.8bn) in 2011. FDI covered only 7% of the CA deficit over the period. Net portfolio investments inched up 2.9% to 1.7bn (5.8% of GDP). The Serbian government expects exports to rise significantly this year, driven by rising car and petrol sales abroad, possibly resulting in current account gap narrowing. The CA deficit will be increasingly financed by FDI inflows, which are also expected to reach around EUR 2.5bn in 2013 supported by energy sector investments.
Serbia's balance of payments, EUR mn Dec'11 Dec'12 Change, y/y,% 2011 2012 Change, y/y,%
Current account -474.8 -405.5 -14.6 -2,870.0 -3,155.1 9.9
Foreign trade gap, goods and services -605.7 -556.8 -8.1 -5,155.2 -5,297.4 2.8
Income,net -122.6 -80.6 -34.3 -757.9 -798.5 5.3
Current transfers 253.5 231.9 -8.5 3,043.1 2,940.8 -3.4
Financial account 500.6 448.8 -10.3 2,693.8 2,883.2 7.0
FDI,net 312.8 95.0 -69.6 1,826.9 231.9 -87.3
Portfolio investment,net 1.5 119.7 / 1,619.1 1,665.9 2.9
Other investment,net 753.6 562.7 -25.3 1,049.2 -151.7 /
Change in NBS reserves (-increase) -567.3 -328.5 -42.1 -1,801.5 1,137.2 /
Overall balance 567.3 328.5 -42.1 1,801.5 -1,137.2 /
Source:NBS
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