Russian sanction limbo begins new chapter as Trump signs bill

Russian sanction limbo begins new chapter as Trump signs bill
Trump signed off on a new sanctions bill that limits his own ability to end sanctions / wikicommons
By bne IntelliNews August 3, 2017

The US President Donald Trump has signed into law a bill imposing tougher sanctions on Russia, North Korea, and Iran, that also limits his own ability to end those sanctions, ending weeks of uncertainty and opening a new chapter in the sanction regime against Russia.

Trump was expected to sign the bill, as the almost universal support in Congress for the legislation would allow it to override a presidential veto if he refused. That would only fuel more suspicions in the ongoing investigations of Russian meddling in the US elections and president’s campaign.

However, the White House also released a signing statement, saying the law will be carried out but expressing reservations about the constitutionality of some of its provisions. The new sanctions bill specifically limits the president’s ability to remove or reduce the sanctions unilaterally. On August 3, President Trump warned that US relations with Russia had hit a “very dangerous low”, as he accused fellow Republicans on Capitol Hill of risking a new Cold War by limiting his power to make deals with the Kremlin.

For the Kremlin’s part, it is fuming over the new sanctions and the flip-flopping of the US president, who previously slammed sanctions as harmful and boasted he will make ”deals” with Russia.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev lambasted Trump’s administration as “utterly helpless,” “humiliating,” and “surrendering executive power to Congress” for signing the bill that starts “a full-blown trade war”.

Experts surveyed by Bloomberg in Washington suggested that Congress could replace the bill with one that leaves more room for the White House once the administration cements a coherent and consistent Russia policy.

But the damage in Russia has already been done, with Medvedev arguing that the new bill codified the sanctions into a regime that will last “for decades to come”, while President Vladimir Putin reacted angrily by ordering home 755 American dimplomats, prompting talks of Cold War 2.0.

“Despite all the euphoria in Moscow after Trump’s election and commentary about Putin as a great strategist, the end result is a more aggressive US sanctions regime doing more damage to Russia,” BlueBay strategist Timothy Ash commented on August 3.

Despite the noise, the sanctions are probably a boon for Putin who has been struggling to craft a solid message on which to build his 2018 presidential re-election campaign. The “fortress Russia surrounded by enemies” has been very productive and these sanctions only underline the theme once again.

Putin’s approval rating remains sky-high at over 80%. Indeed he is more popular since the showdown over Ukraine began in 2014 than he was during the years of the economic boom in the noughties

Just this week a poll found that more than 80% of Russia’s youth support President Putin’s policies, according to the Center for Students’ Sociology. “More than 80% of students support the president’s policies. Eleven percent said they somewhat disagreed with it, and just 3% do not support it completely,” the pollster said, reports Russian news service Tass

Meanwhile, a reaction from the EU on the new sanctions bill is also anticipated. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called upon colleagues in Brussels to “stand ready to act within days” should the additional US sanctions be “adopted without EU concerns being taken into account”, the Financial Times reported on July 24, citing a note prepared for a commission meeting

The law could create a rift between the US and the EU, as some European countries are still dependent on Russia for energy supplies and fear that the new sanctions could affect such projects as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

In the end of July German federal grid regulator Bundesnetzagentur has decided to exclude projects related to the planned Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the 2026 development strategy of Germany’s gas transportation system.

Bundesnetzagentur reportedly shelved five connections to the projected pipeline worth €4.5bn due to the projects’ “instability” and lack of a definite decision on its construction, thereby “protecting German consumers from unnecessary spending”, the authority said.

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