Russian manufacturing conditions deteriorate for second month in June

Russian manufacturing conditions deteriorate for second month in June
Russia's manufacturing PMI continued to under perform in June for the second month in a row / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews July 2, 2018

Operational conditions in Russian manufacturing sector deteriorated for a second successive month in June, with the manufacturing output dipping to joint-weakest since July 2016 and new orders declining for the first time in almost two years, the Manufacturing PMI data released by IHS Markit on July 2 shows.

Although Russian industrial output and manufacturing number in particular were recently beefed up by Rosstat retroactive series revision, the speed of recovery remains in question as recent reports suggest that the government is bracing for slowdown in 2018-2019.

The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Russia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index posted 49.5 in June, down from 49.8 in May, and below the 50.0 no-change mark indicating contraction. The current sequence of decline (at two months) is now the longest since May 2016, Markit notes.

Output growth remained marginal in June, and while the expansion extended the current sequence of increase to 26 months, but the rate of growth was below the long-run series average.

New orders in manufacturing in June meanwhile contracted for the first time in almost two years, albeit only marginally, Markit notes, adding that "the decline was largely attributed to weaker client demand and a reduction in new customers.

“Weaker output growth and the first contraction in new orders since July 2016 were key factors behind a deterioration in operating conditions in June," Markit economist Sian Jones commented, noting that "less robust client demand was also evident in reduced pressure on capacities, with employment levels and backlogs contracting further."

In the meantime input cost inflation remained elevated in June, with the marked pace of increase largely attributed to higher raw material costs, especially oil, and exchange rate depreciation. The rise in cost burdens was faster than the long-run series average in the reporting month.

As a consequence, despite difficult demand conditions, manufacturing firms reported a sharp rise in output charges. The pace of factory gate price inflation was the second fastest since September 2015, according to Markit, stemming from robust increases in input costs.

Nevertheless, output expectations for the coming year remained robust in June, despite dipping to a six-month low. "Anecdotal evidence linked optimism to hopes of greater production and increased product development," the report suggests.

Data

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