Russia’s preliminary CA surplus halves y/y in Jan-Sep.

By bne IntelliNews October 4, 2013

According to the preliminary estimate of the balance of payments by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), current account surplus in Jan-Sep 2013 amounted to USD 29.5bn. This makes a 52% y/y decline. In Q3/13 alone, CA surplus was estimated at USD1.1bn vs. USD 3.4bn in Q2/13 and USD 25bn in Q1/13.

Trade account posted surplus of USD 133.5bn in Jan-Sep vs. USD 146.8bn a year ago. The deficit of services expanded to USD 44bn from USD 33.9bn a year ago. The deficit of the financial account remained almost unchanged at USD 25bn in Jan-Sep.  

In 2012, CA surplus of USD 74.8bn was seen, in 2011 CA surplus made USD 99bn vs. USD 71.1bn in 2010, USD 48.6bn in 2009 and USD 103.5bn in 2008.

In the revised CBR’s policy guidelines for 2014-2016, CA surplus is expected at USD 33bn in 2013 (USD 37bn previously). In 2014, CA surplus is seen declining to USD 19bn (USD 25bn previously), in 2015 to USD 5bn, and in 2016 CA is expected to post a deficit of USD 3bn. 

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