The growth in September was largely supported by expanding extraction. "Significant improvements can be seen in the output of crude oil, which expanded on the decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase volumes in September-December," VTB Capital commented on October 16.
At the same time manufacturing output shrank by 0.1% y/y in September compared with 2.2% y/y growth the month before, showing negative dynamics for the first time since December 2017. Manufacturing was still up 2.2% y/y in 3Q18 and 3.3% y/y in January-September.
"We think the y/y dynamics of manufacturing and industrial production in general will improve in 4Q18, supported by a low-base effect (industrial production shrank 1.6% y/y in 4Q17)," Sberbank forecasts.