Russia’s EconMin has revised its estimate of H1/13 GDP growth from previous 1.7% to 1.4% y/y. June’s GDP growth is revised from 1.5% to 0.4% y/y and May’s from 1% to 0.2% y/y. H1/13 GDP growth slowed considerably from 4.5% seen a year ago in H1/12. EconMin’s GDP growth forecast remains 2.4% for 2013 (revised from 3.6% previously).
The EconMin did not revise the forecast despite flash estimates of RosStat published last week that showed Q2/13 GDP growth at 1.2% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y expected by EconMin and 2% by the analysts. EconMin Alexei Ulyukaev commented that risk of recession is still there and that economic policies will have to react accordingly. The EconMin hopes to mitigate the risks of recession H2/13 due to a favourable base effect, good agriculture performance, and weaker RUB.
At the same time in the monetary and credit policy report of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) GDP growth of 2% is expected in 2013. This is below the 2.4% forecast of EconMin. The CBR sees a moderate output gap (actual output being below potential) maintained in 2013. Economic growth was limited by oil prices and low external demand and activity in the Eurozone are not expected to stimulate Russia economy in the short-term, the CBR believes.
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