Russia’s EconMin revises H1 GDP growth estimate to 1.4%.

By bne IntelliNews August 19, 2013

Russia’s EconMin has revised its estimate of H1/13 GDP growth from previous 1.7% to 1.4% y/y.  June’s GDP growth is revised from 1.5% to 0.4% y/y and May’s from 1% to 0.2% y/y. H1/13 GDP growth slowed considerably from 4.5% seen a year ago in H1/12. EconMin’s GDP growth forecast remains 2.4% for 2013 (revised from 3.6% previously).

The EconMin did not revise the forecast despite flash estimates of RosStat published last week that showed Q2/13 GDP growth at 1.2% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y expected by EconMin and 2% by the analysts. EconMin Alexei Ulyukaev commented that risk of recession is still there and that economic policies will have to react accordingly. The EconMin hopes to mitigate the risks of recession H2/13 due to a favourable base effect, good agriculture performance, and weaker RUB.

At the same time in the monetary and credit policy report of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) GDP growth of 2% is expected in 2013. This is below the 2.4% forecast of EconMin. The CBR sees a moderate output gap (actual output being below potential) maintained in 2013. Economic growth was limited by oil prices and low external demand and activity in the Eurozone are not expected to stimulate Russia economy in the short-term, the CBR believes.

Related Articles

London High Court throws out Ukraine’s bond case against Russia

The High Court in London on March 29 ruled that it would not be right for a $3bn Eurobond case brought by Russia against Ukraine to go to full trial since Kyiv has no “justifiable defence” for ... more

EU court upholds sanctions against Russia’s Rosneft

The European General Court (EGC) in Luxembourg after a year of hearings deemed the sanctions against Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft as legal, which the company protested as “illegal, ... more

Russia's Sberbank selling its Ukrainian subsidiary

Russia’s largest bank Sberbank is selling its subsidiary in Ukraine to a consortium of investors that includes Latvia’s Norvik Bank and a private Belarusian company, Sberbank said in a statement ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss