Russia's Bashneft boosts oil production 10% y/y ahead of privatisation

By bne IntelliNews July 27, 2016

In the run-up to its planned privatisation, Russia's Bashneft oil company increased its output by 9.6% y/y to 5.3mn tonnes of oil in April-June, the company reported on July 27.

Average daily production reached 58,200 tonnes, it said, with the growth being driven mainly by subsidiaries Bashneft-Polyus and Burneftegaz, which accounted for 21.6% of total oil production compared with 14.6% in the second quarter of 2015.

The boost was also supported by a 0.6% increase in oil production at brownfields, mainly due to the commissioning of new wells and highly efficient geological and engineering operations in the republic of Bashkortostan. This is the home region of the company, which was effectively renationalised in 2015 and is now lined up for renewed privatisation later this year, following the government's successful sale this month of 10.9% in diamond miner Alrosa.

Earlier it was reported that Russian oil company Rosneft is still looking to participate in Bashneft's privatisation, despite Kremlin objections to the state company's potential acquisition of the 50.1% going up for sale. Independent Lukoil has also said it will pay a premium for the stake in its peer.

During the first six months of 2016, Bashneft produced 10.6mn tonnes of oil, which is 10.9% more than during the same period in 2015. Bashneft-Polyus boosted production by 76.3% y/y (to 1.08mn tonnes), while Burneftegaz increased production by 66.3% y/y (to 1.14mn tonnes). In the first half of 2016, production at brownfields gained 1.4% y/y.

In April-June, Bashneft's refining complex processed 4.09mn tonnes of crude oil, which is 8.6% less than in the second quarter of 2015. The reduction in refining was caused by a planned shutdown of process units at the Bashneft-UNPZ industrial site due to major repairs. During the first half of the year, refining totalled 8.82mn tonnes, which is 4% less y/y.

In April-June, the output of petroleum products and petrochemicals decreased by 10% y/y to 3.77mn tonnes, while during the six months of 2016, it dropped by 4.9% to 8.21mn tonnes. 

During the six months of 2016, gasoline production fell by 6.5% y/y to 2.05 mn tonnes, while the output of diesel fuel decreased by 3.6% y/y to 3.53mn tonnes. 

In April-June, gasoline production fell by 16.4% y/y to 895mn tonnes, while the output of diesel fuel decreased by 5.8% y/y to 1.66mn tonnes.

 

Bashneft - KEY METRICS
  2014 2015 2016E 2017E
Financials, $ mln        
Revenues 16,765 10,061 6,236 7,961
EBITDA 2,765 2,190 2,686 2,155 1,592 1,847
EBITDA margin 16% 21% 26% 23%
Net income 1,235 973 768 924
EPS (adj), $ 6.95 5.48 4.32 5.2
Div/share, $ 1.82 1.41 1.51 1.82
Valuation, Gearing and Yield        
EV/EBITDA 2.5 3.7 5.1 4.5
P/E 3.9 6.9 8.8 7.3
P/CF 1.7 4.3 5.2 4.9
Net debt/EBITDA 0.8 0.7 1.1 1
Dividend yield 6.70% 3.70% 4.00% 4.80%
Growth        
Revenues -5% -40% -38% 28%
EBITDA -15% -22% -26% 16%
EPS (adj) -15% -21% -21% 20%
Sector Valuation      
EV/EBITDA 2.3 3.4 5.7 4.8
P/E 4.1 5.2 11.3 8.6
P/CF 1.6 3 4.5 4.2
Sector Growth      
Revenues -7% -35% -42% 25%
EBITDA -17% -29% -40% 20%
EPS -28% -28% -56%  
Main Shareholders      
Federal Property Fund 50.10%      
Republic of Bashkortostan 25.00%      
Treasury shares 4.70%      
Website - http://www.bashneft.ru        
  http://www.bashneft.ru      

 

Bashneft 1Q16 IFRS review
  1Q15 4Q15 1Q16A YoY, % QoQ, % 1Q16E A/E, % 1Q16C A/C, %
RUB bln                  
Revenue 143 148 131 -8 -11 126 4.2 127.6 2.9
EBITDA 26.5 27.2 28.5 7.7 4.9 28 1.9 28.3 0.7
Net income 11.4 6.9 14.1 24 105 15 -6 12.9 9.4
OCF before WC (after interest, inc 19.8 18.2 21.3 7.8 17 n/a n/a n/a n/a
OCF -2.7 22.1 59.4 n/m 169 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capex 12.2 18.8 17.2 42 -8.5 n/a n/a n/a n/a
FCF before WC changes 7.6 -0.6 4.1 -47 n/m n/a n/a    
FCF -14.9 3.2 42.2 n/m 1,206 n/a n/a n/a n/a
        ppt ppt       ppt
EBITDA margin, % 18.5 18.4 21.7 3.2 3.4 n/a n/a 22.2 -0.5
Net margin, % 8 4.7 10.8 2.8 6.1 n/a n/a 10.1 0.6
$ mln       % %       %
Revenue 2.3 2.24 1.76 -23.5 -21.6 1.69 4.2 1.71 2.9
EBITDA 0.43 0.41 0.38 -10.2 -7.3 0.38 1.9 0.38 0.7
Net income 0.18 0.1 0.19 3.4 81 0.2 -6 0.17 9.4
OCF before WC (after interest, inc 0.32 0.28 0.29 -10.2 3.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
OCF -0.04 0.33 0.8 n/m 138 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capex 0.2 0.29 0.23 18 -19.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a
FCF before WC changes 0.12 -0.01 0.05 -55 n/m n/a n/a n/a n/a
FCF -0.24 0.05 0.57 n/m 1,054 n/a n/a n/a n/a

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