Russian income figures deteriorated in October after a brief respite in September. Both nominal and real disposable incomes fell, while real incomes were the only indicator to improve – more as a function of falling inflation than any improvement in life.
Real disposable income dynamics have deteriorated to -5.9% y/y from -1.5% in September (at the same time, the September figure was revised upwards, from -2.8% y/y).
Nominal wage growth slowed from 8.5% in September (the revised figure, initially 9.4% in the last month reported) to 8.2% y/y. Real wage growth remained positive (+2.0%), and almost unchanged vs the revised September figure (1.9%, initially 2.8%).
Retail sales turnover declined 4.4% y/y, with the respective September improvement (-3.6% y/y) not sustained. Non-food retail sales were down 3.4% (-2.8% in September), and food retail, down 5.4% (-4.4% September).
Construction work recovered to -0.8% y/y in October, substantially stronger than the September decline, which was revised from 4.2% to 6.8%.
“The numbers are mixed: demand-side indicators retreated from September levels, while supply-side metrics are stronger, especially construction,” Aton Capital said in a note.