Romania’s public debt measured under ESA methodology increased by 8.3% y/y (or nearly €5bn) to €64.9bn at the end of August, according to bne IntelliNews calculations based on finance ministry data.
The debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 0.9pp to 37.4% at the end of August. Historically, the ratio has been significantly below the 39.4% hit at the end of 2014 after it tripled since before the recession at the end of 2008 (when it was 13.2%).
Domestic public debt increased slightly faster than external public debt (by 13% y/y in local currency terms, versus the 9.7% advance of the external debt) and accounted, at the end of August, for 51% of the total debt.
By currency, public debt denominated in local currency increased by 13% y/y and accounted for 47.5% of the total at the end of August. Public debt denominated in euros increased by 14% y/y to 43.8% of the total.
Under the national methodology, the country’s public debt hit 41.7% of GDP (€76bn) at the end of August after a 0.6pp increase over the past 12 months. The national methodology includes borrowing from the Treasury’s reserves and the debt-to-GDP ratio is calculated based on the year’s projected GDP as opposed to rolling four-quarter GDP used under ESA methodology.
Romania Public Debt | ||||||||||||
ESA methodology | Dec-08 | Dec-09 | Dec-10 | Dec-11 | Dec-12 | Dec-13 | Dec-14 | Dec-15 | Dec-16 | Aug-17 | y/y | y/y |
Debt RON mn | 69,020 | 118,428 | 159,687 | 193,217 | 221,873 | 240,777 | 263,153 | 270,077 | 285,995 | 298,121 | 11.4% | 30,437 |
- domestic | 27,809 | 60,986 | 81,931 | 98,164 | 108,503 | 108,738 | 124,936 | 135,674 | 147,692 | 151,825 | 13.0% | 17,491 |
- external | 41,212 | 57,443 | 77,756 | 95,053 | 113,370 | 132,039 | 138,218 | 134,403 | 138,303 | 146,296 | 9.7% | 12,946 |
Debt € mn | 17,319 | 28,009 | 37,268 | 44,729 | 50,099 | 53,689 | 58,712 | 59,692 | 62,979 | 64,942 | 8.3% | 4,995 |
Debt to GDP | 13.20% | 23.20% | 29.90% | 34.20% | 37.30% | 37.80% | 39.40% | 38.00% | 37.60% | 37.40% | 0.9% | |
National methodology | ||||||||||||
Debt RON mn | 109,795 | 147,329 | 194,459 | 223,268 | 240,843 | 267,151 | 295,656 | 315,934 | 339,220 | 348,702 | 11.7% | 36,438 |
Debt €mn | 27,551 | 34,844 | 45,383 | 51,686 | 54,382 | 59,569 | 65,964 | 69,827 | 74,700 | 75,960 | 8.6% | 6,030 |
Debt to GDP | 20.90% | 28.90% | 36.40% | 39.50% | 40.40% | 41.90% | 44.30% | 44.30% | 44.50% | 41.70% | 0.6% | |
Source: FinMin, bne IntelliNews |