Romania’s public debt hiked to 37.4% of GDP

Romania’s public debt hiked to 37.4% of GDP
By bne IntelliNews October 20, 2017

Romania’s public debt measured under ESA methodology increased by 8.3% y/y (or nearly €5bn) to €64.9bn at the end of August, according to bne IntelliNews calculations based on finance ministry data.

The debt-to-GDP ratio increased by 0.9pp to 37.4% at the end of August. Historically, the ratio has been significantly below the 39.4% hit at the end of 2014 after it tripled since before the recession at the end of 2008 (when it was 13.2%).

Domestic public debt increased slightly faster than external public debt (by 13% y/y in local currency terms, versus the 9.7% advance of the external debt) and accounted, at the end of August, for 51% of the total debt.

By currency, public debt denominated in local currency increased by 13% y/y and accounted for 47.5% of the total at the end of August. Public debt denominated in euros increased by 14% y/y to 43.8% of the total.

Under the national methodology, the country’s public debt hit 41.7% of GDP (€76bn) at the end of August after a 0.6pp increase over the past 12 months. The national methodology includes borrowing from the Treasury’s reserves and the debt-to-GDP ratio is calculated based on the year’s projected GDP as opposed to rolling four-quarter GDP used under ESA methodology.

Romania Public Debt                        
ESA methodology Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Aug-17 y/y y/y
Debt RON mn 69,020 118,428 159,687 193,217 221,873 240,777 263,153 270,077 285,995 298,121 11.4% 30,437
     - domestic 27,809 60,986 81,931 98,164 108,503 108,738 124,936 135,674 147,692 151,825 13.0% 17,491
     - external 41,212 57,443 77,756 95,053 113,370 132,039 138,218 134,403 138,303 146,296 9.7% 12,946
Debt € mn 17,319 28,009 37,268 44,729 50,099 53,689 58,712 59,692 62,979 64,942 8.3% 4,995
Debt to GDP 13.20% 23.20% 29.90% 34.20% 37.30% 37.80% 39.40% 38.00% 37.60% 37.40% 0.9%  
National methodology                        
Debt RON mn 109,795 147,329 194,459 223,268 240,843 267,151 295,656 315,934 339,220 348,702 11.7% 36,438
Debt €mn 27,551 34,844 45,383 51,686 54,382 59,569 65,964 69,827 74,700 75,960 8.6% 6,030
Debt to GDP 20.90% 28.90% 36.40% 39.50% 40.40% 41.90% 44.30% 44.30% 44.50% 41.70% 0.6%  
Source: FinMin, bne IntelliNews                        

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