The leader of Romania’s largest party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Liviu Dragnea, defeated his rivals at a party summit on September 21. 

Dragnea had been under pressure to resign from a dissident faction headed by Bucharest mayor Gabriela Firea. However, at the summit the majority of the regional branch leaders, 56 versus just eight, supported Dragnea after the outcome had been unclear the day before.

Dragnea, who is also the chamber of deputies speaker, retained control over the party even though members had been disappointed by its falling support in the polls, and the rising risk of losing its majority in the parliamentary elections in 2020 (local, European and presidential elections are scheduled for next year), thanks to his firm grip over the government and resource allocation. Regional PSD branch leaders were reportedly promised economic rents and more budget allocations in exchange for their loyalty.

But while this bought the PSD leader some time, the bargaining for resources will continue. Separately the court ruling expected by Dragnea — he was sentenced in an abuse of office case earlier this year and is awaiting his appeal — remains a key element of the political outlook. 

From a broader perspective, this gives one more chance to Romania’s opposition parties, which have so far failed to gain momentum despite the visible disarray within the PSD and the ruling coalition’s attempts to weaken the rule of law. 

Indeed Dragnea’s electoral support has plunged to single digit levels, but the party stays strong. An electoral poll produced by the dissident faction in the PSD shows Dragnea at 7% support for president, versus 40% enjoyed by incumbent President Klaus Iohannis. The same poll shows the PSD at 31%, versus 25% for the main opposition National Liberal Party. 

Rising wages, pensions and social benefits are still fuelling the ruling coalition’s electoral support while the efforts to weaken the rule of law are only noticed by a minority of voters. A steep economic slowdown, particularly if accompanied by downward correction in the local currency and high inflation, could significantly change the electoral outlook in 2019, though.

Prime Minister Viorica Dancila, despite previous rumours, remains a close partner of the PSD leader. The dissident faction promised her the interim leading position in the party and the prime minister seat until the next elections, but she reportedly stood by her political mentor Dragnea. The repeated changes at the top of the government made by Dragnea last year (when two prime ministers were replaced in the first year after winning the elections at the end of 2016) thus paid dividends.