The political party led and established by Marjan Sarec, runner-up in the recent presidential elections, will play a key role in forming the next Slovenian government after gaining 12.66% of the vote in the June 3 parliamentary elections. 

The main opposition party in the country, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) had the largest number of votes, 24.96%, according to the data published by the Slovenian Election Commission at 23:15 on June 3. The SDS lacks enough votes to form a government alone, putting Sarec in kingmaker position. While Sarec has said he does not plan to enter a coalition with the SDS, a tie up between the SDS and List of Marjan Sarec (LMS) is still seen as a likely outcome by analysts. 

Speaking after the vote, SDS leader Janez Jansa thanked voters but acknowledged that, “The path that lies before us is steep and full of obstacles”. 

“If the SDS leads the government, we will run it fairly and for the benefit of all citizens and citizens,” he added, according to a party statement. 

The LMS took second place in the general election, followed by the Social Democrats led by outgoing Minister of Agriculture Dejan Zidan, with support of 9.92%.

Six other parties will also take seats in the Slovenian parliament. Among them are outgoing Prime Minister Miro Cerar’s Party of Modern Centre (SMC) with 9.75%, Left Party (Levica) with 9.29% as well as New Slovenia (NSi) on 7.13%. Just scraping past the threshold of 4% are the Party of Alenka Bratusek (SAB), Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (DeSUS) and the far-right Slovenian National Party (SNS), which will return to the parliament after failing to pass the threshold last time.

In total, 88 of the seats in the Slovenian parliament will be split between members of nine parties, which is two more than in the previous four years. The remaining two seats are designated for representatives of the Italian and Hungarian minorities.

After the party’s strong performance, the LMS’ initial statement posted on Facebook was simply: “Thank you, Slovenia!”

Later, the party expanded on its plans: "Congratulations to the winner and much success in drawing up the government. And No, I repeat, we are not going into coalition with the SDS. Summer will be twice as hot."

“As things look now, there is no government without Sarec even though he didn’t gain a majority,” Miran Videtic, director at VI-PU, a management consulting company based in Kamnik, the small town where Sarec is currently mayor, told bne IntelliNews.

“Even though it is hard to imagine him in any coalition other than the one with the SDS, his first statement tonight was that he is not going in a coalition with Janez Jansa. It is not easy to take it that seriously and everyone here seems to wonder if he claims that in order to increase his price and get better negotiation position for upcoming talks with Jansa or if he actually thinks that.” 

Sarec is a former comic and journalist who has been mayor of Kamnik since 2010. The obscure candidate made it to the second round of the 2017 presidential elections, with incumbent Borut Pahor — known as “Barbie” because of his former career as a model — only narrowly defeating him on November 12. Since than his popularity has been advancing, indicating that Slovenians want a new face on their political scene even though he still doesn’t have clear a political plan or principles.

Claiming he doesn't want an alliance with Jansa indicates Sarec could be aiming to become prime minister himself rather than propping up an SDS-led government. However, according to Videtic, this would hardly be achievable as he would need at least four more partners for a coalition in the fragmented parliament. In addition, such a coalition would be a hodgepodge of diverse political positions and thus unlikely to be approved by the Slovenian public. 

“What is logical, President Borut Pahor will offer a mandate to form a new government to Jansa as he won a majority. If he fails to do it, next in line is Sarec. But, Sarec also needs Jansa and it is hard to imagine Jansa giving Sarec the PM post,” Videtic said. 

“But, it is still not a mission impossible, as in politics everything is possible. Anyway, political math is just starting in Slovenia and calculations and final results are in this moment completely unpredictable.” 

The consultant believes that even new parliamentary elections are an open possibility, which is not a good thing for the country at all.

“A country without a government means political instability, political instability is bad impulse to economic stability, especially now when Slovenia’s economy is advancing, and new foreign investments are expected. People here are tired of politics which the very low turnout shows… It is also disappointing that the three parties from the outgoing government together barely gained 25%, even though their mandate was marked by improvements in numerous economic segments — from GDP, to the unemployment rate, exports and tourism growth,” Videtic added.

Cerar’s SMC and its junior coalition partners, the SD and DeSUS took office in 2014. Since then, the Slovenian economy has resumed growth after it contracted for two consecutive years. It went on to grow by 2.9% in 2015 and 3.1% y/y in 2016 and accelerate to 5% in 2017. 

In another example of the improvements in the economy, ILO unemployment rate declined to 6.6% last year, the lowest in the last eight years. In 2017, Slovenia’s external trade surplus amounted to €0.7bn, which was the second highest level since 2000. 

However, in a pre-election interview with bne IntelliNews, Sebastjan Jeretic, Slovenian political analyst and founder of communication consulting company Neurovirtu, said Cerar’s government had not managed to communicate its economic achievements, while at the same time failing to address other pressing problems namely “the health system, judiciary, corruption and above all the total apathy of people”. 

This was reflected in the low scores for Cerar’s SMC and its coalition partners, as well as the low turnout. On June 3, just 51.97% or 890.140 of the 1.71mn registered voters cast their votes, according to the Slovenian Election Commission