Polish GDP growth surges in first quarter

Polish GDP growth surges in first quarter
By bne IntelliNews May 16, 2017

The Polish economy accelerated growth to 4% y/y in constant prices in the first quarter, Poland’s stats office GUS announced in a flash estimate on May 16.

The result was in line with strong readings across Central & Eastern Europea. The pace of the Polish expansion is in line with high expectations created by the performance of key sectors in January-March. Strong retail and industrial production data added to a return to form in construction. The latter suggests investment mounted a recovery in early 2017 after a deep lull last year.

A detailed breakdown will be issued on May 31. GDP expanded 1% q/q, GUS also noted.

Private consumption, driven by the tightened labour market, likely grew 4.6% y/y in the first quarter, according to Bank Millennium. Investment likely returned to positive growth as well, the bank adds.

With the growth surging in the first quarter at the fastest rate since the first quarter of 2015, the outlook for the year has also improved. “Such a solid pace of GDP growth makes us revise the 2017 GDP growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.8%,” Erste notes. Bank Millennium is less exact, but still bullish, pitching this year’s growth at “around 4%”.

The growth reading will only create an additional stir on the course of monetary policy. However, BZ WBK maintains the view that despite the stronger than expected first quarter expansion, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is unlikely to look to hike rates as long as inflation does not increase.

However, hawkish talk at the May 17 MPC meeting might get a little more airtime, Capital Economics appears to suggest. “Today’s strong GDP figures may make central banks in the region more inclined to bring forward the start of monetary tightening cycles,” the analysts write.

 

 

 

 

 

Data

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss