Poland to ride EM bond rally hard in first quarter of 2013

By bne IntelliNews December 21, 2012

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Continuing its push to leverage the emerging market bond rally while it lasts, Poland announced on December 20 that it intends to have raised over half of its total 2013 borrowing needs by the end of the first quarter.

"If investors will want to buy our bonds early next year we will meet this demand, although maybe not for all types of papers," Piotr Marczak, head of the finance ministry's debt department, said as an auction schedule for next year was presented, according to Dow Jones.

With high global liquidity helping push yields in CEE to record lows, Poland has been racing to take advantage. At almost €12bn, the country's total issuance in 2012 trails only China's $30bn among emerging market peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That has left Warsaw with close to 25% of its PLN145bn 2013 borrowing needs already in place, an official said last week.

That issuance was bumped up significantly in the fourth quarter, as Warsaw raced to take advantage of the EM bond rally before it runs out of steam - a possibility that was widely discussed, but has taken a back seat in recent weeks. Still, like others in the region - Slovakia said earlier this month that it plans to issue as much as €14bn worth of debt in 2013 - Poland clearly intends to continue making hay while the sun shines.

The issuance schedule revealed that the finance ministry will conduct two bond tenders a month in 2013 except for August and December, when only one sale will take place. Marczak called the issuance calendar for 2013 the "most flexible ever prepared," allowing the finance ministry to treat papers with maturity of up to one year as a liquidity management tool rather than a debt financing tool.

"Most likely in January we will return to the sale of bills which will assure additional levels of liquidity reserve," Marczak said. "That reserve will be held as long as the cost of servicing bills will be lower than the earnings on budget deposits."

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