Turkey and Ukraine have been having a hard time of it this year and the worst maybe yet to come – both countries are facing potential crises.
Turkey has been suffering from a currency meltdown that has seen the value of the lira tumble forcing the reluctant central bank to put in two emergency rate hikes. And as the devaluation will push up inflation more hikes are on the way. The economy is already starting to slow that puts even more pressure on the heavily indebted corporate sector.
Ukraine is also in a bad way with only $18bn in reserves – just enough to ensure the stability of the hryvnia – but with $10bn of debt redemptions due in the next 18 months and the possible suspension of the IMF programme analysts are talking about an imminent devaluation and default.
bne IntelliNews editor-in-chief Ben Aris talks to Gunter Deuber, the chief economist at Raiffeisen International Bank about the problems both countries face and their outlook.
Ben Aris, editor-in-chief bne IntelliNews
Gunter Deuber, chief economist at Raiffeisen International Bank