With the second round of the Mongolian elections taking place on July 7, showy martial arts star Battulga Khaltmaa increasingly looks like the strongest contender for the presidency. 

While the first round ended with no clear winner as none of the three candidates collected over 50% of the vote, Battulga’s nationalist, populist approach, particularly when it comes to mining-dependent Mongolia’s natural resources, and his suspicious attitude towards neighbouring China secured him the largest share of the vote.

What has especially set self-made millionaire and judo star Battulga apart from first round runner-up Enkhbold Miyegombo were his attempts to associate himself with Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. This indicates that should Battulga fulfil expectations and win on July 7, Ulanbataar could be poised to make a pivot towards Russia and away from China. 

Mongolia currently relies overwhelmingly on China’s demand for commodities — almost 90% of the country’s exports go to China — but there is growing popular resentment against China within the country. 

Forcefully hinting at a relationship with Mongolia’s other powerful neighbour, Battulga’s campaign materials were ripe with images of himself and Putin together, even though no known history exists between the two, according to The Diplomat. Even Miyegombo’s Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) has published photos of the Russian leader shaking hands with Battulga at a Kremlin event. 

Some independent experts, including a photographer from Russian news agency RIA Novosti, have pointed out that the images might be faked. However, if his ties to Russia are indeed strong and true, Battulga’s election might result in the reinstating of Russia’s role in Mongolia’s affairs after 25 years of absence following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent peaceful democratic revolution in Mongolia.

A strengthening of Russia’s role in Mongolia is unlikely to be an economic one like in the USSR days, when Mongolia’s GDP was nearly 40% reliant on the Soviet Union. Russia’s interests in Mongolia are mostly political, and might attempt to counterbalance China without impinging upon its economic role.

There are already signs of a closer relationship between Russia and Mongolia ahead of the election. For the first time, the two countries will hold joint military drills in the Gobi desert between August 26 and September 9. The drills will be aimed at training Russian and Mongolian forces in combatting terrorism, although neither Mongolia nor the neighbouring regions of Russia are currently facing threats from terrorists.

Mudslinging campaign tactics 

Aside from the Russian angle pursued by Democratic Party candidate Battulga, the campaign has been largely negative, with little political debate, a situation that has upset many Mongolians who perceived a lack of options in the election. 

Earning himself a popular nickname of “Genco” after a ruthless character in the Godfather film and credited for building Mongolia’s biggest Genghis Khan statue, Battulga’s populist streak earned him more votes than his opponents in the first round of the elections. He took 38.1% (or 517,478 votes) on June 26. 

For the first time in Mongolia’s democratic history, there was no outright winner. Battulga will go on to face Miyegombo, whose MPP controls the parliament and who won 411,748 votes, or 30.3% of the vote. Ganbaatar Sainkhuu of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP), lost out on second place to Enkhbold by only 2,000 votes, and was eliminated from the contest, despite his party’s objections.

Trained lawyer Enkhbold’s chances of winning the presidency were originally predicted as better than those of Battulga, but the favourite was hurt by a campaign surprise – a three-year-old audio recording in circulation is said to feature him and two MPP colleagues discussing payments for senior government positions. Denying the claims, the MPP insists the tapes have been edited to portray the remarks out of context.

Indeed, both Battulga and Enkhbold have been battling corruption allegations. Prior to election day, the MPP accused Battulga of misappropriating mining contracts. He also faces allegations posted on the internet that he has large unstated overseas assets. However, his campaign has denied all the claims put forward, and he appears to have been hurt less by allegations against his persona than Enkhbold has.

Meanwhile, both candidates have been at pains to explain how they would restore Mongolia's economic fortunes. The country grew by more than 17% in 2011 but only notched up 1% GDP growth in 2016, as economic expansion almost came to a shuddering halt because of a steep decline in commodities prices.

At the same time, however, the policies espoused by both the two leading candidates have raised some alarm bells among investors. Battulga’s popularity might worry investors as he is seeking to reinstate a banking measure that previously caused the country’s IMF-led $5.5bn bailout deal to come to a standstill. But Enkhbold also faces a dilemma where the bailout is concerned. In order to be accepted into the IMF’s three-year Extended Fund Facility programme, the MPP had to backtrack on many general election promises. Its tax raises, meaner social safety net, frozen public-sector wages and raised retirement age all run counter to the manifesto it was previously elected on with a landslide.

Transparency concerns

Aside from the MPRP’s claims of fixing, there are further concerns about the conduct of the election. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observation mission has issued a statement about the first round of elections, where some reservations were expressed about the transparency of the electoral process. 

Specifically, the OSCE noted that the General Election Commission’s conduct led to a lack of transparency, since the body only released aggregated results. The OSCE also noted that “campaign finance regulations levelled the playing field to a certain extent, yet the provisions for transparency and accountability were insufficient and did not address concerns of corruption in political life”.

Nevertheless, the stakes are not seen as so high because in Mongolia the parliament controls the government. Even though the president can veto legislative decisions, the parliament can overturn his or her interventions with a two-thirds majority vote. However, the head of state can also make some key appointments, including the heads of the Independent Authority Against Corruption and the General Intelligence Agency.