Moldova’s trade gap widens

Moldova’s trade gap widens
By bne IntelliNews August 8, 2018

Moldova’s foreign trade gap widened by 19% y/y to $773mn in Q2, the statistics office reported. In euros, the gap increased by only 9.6% y/y but its magnitude (€648mn) amounts to 8% of the full year’s GDP.

Over the 12 months ending June, the trade gap hit $2.67bn (€2.24bn), or 27.7% of the GDP projected for this year ($9.69bn).

And yet, the country’s foreign trade reserves at the central bank increased by $492mn over the year (or by 21% y/y) to $2.87bn or nearly 30% of GDP at the end of June — or nearly 13 months of imports (of goods only). By the end of July, the reserves had increased to $2.95bn. Robust wage remittances are driving imports up (as the local production base cannot cope with the rising demand for goods), strengthening the local currency at the same time.

Q2 exports increased by 17.4% y/y to €533mn, a high rate compared to the pace of imports (12.9% y/y). But Moldova’s imports (€1.18bn in Q2) are twice as large as the exports and the trade gap keeps widening. The exports to the European Union countries increased by an impressive rate of 30% y/y to €373mn, while those to Russia shrank by 22% y/y.

FOREIGN TRADE                
EUR mn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 18 Q2 18
Total exports 1,672 1,824 1,772 1,773 1,849 2,137 551 533
CIS 719 695 556 444 374 409 91 78
EU 783 853 945 1,097 1,205 1,406 369 373
Other 170 276 272 232 270 322 88 80
Total imports 4,033 4,127 4,036 3,598 3,632 4,266 1,078 1,180
Total balance -2,360 -2,303 -2,264 -1,825 -1,784 -2,128 -528 -648
y/y                
Total exports 5.2% 9.1% -2.9% 0.0% 4.3% 15.6% 11.1% 17.4%
CIS 9.0% -3.3% -20.0% -20.1% -15.8% 9.5% -8.1% -22.2%
EU 0.9% 9.0% 10.7% 16.1% 9.8% 16.6% 17.1% 29.8%
Other 10.5% 62.2% -1.7% -14.7% 16.3% 19.6% 8.8% 20.8%
Total imports 8.4% 2.3% -2.2% -10.8% 0.9% 17.4% 11.4% 12.9%
Total balance 10.8% -2.5% -1.7% -19.4% -2.3% 19.3% 11.9% 9.6%
Source: BNS, Intellinews                

 

Dismiss