Moldova’s exports increased by 5% y/y to €454mn in Q2, losing momentum from the 31% y/y advance in Q1, according to calculations based on data released by the statistics bureau BNS. Imports rose by 17% y/y, resulting in a 29% higher trade gap for the quarter compared to last year.
The country’s trade gap had already widened by 17% y/y to €472mn in Q1 and the €591mn gap in Q2 (29% up y/y) resulted in a significant deterioration of the external balance.
The trade gap in the rolling 12 months ending June 2017 increased by 11% y/y to €1.96bn, and accounted for 32% of the country’s GDP. A large part of the trade gap is traditionally financed from wage remittances in Moldova. In the rolling 12 months ending June, the coverage ratio was 52% according to bne IntelliNews calculations (from a similar ratio of 53% calculated at the end of June 2016) as wage remittances increased by 6% y/y to $1.13bn in the period. The sharp widening of the trade gap in Q2 has thus not yet resulted in a significant deterioration of the coverage ratio.
Moldova’s exports to the European Union increased by 5% y/y in Q2 — a visible deceleration from the annual growth rates of over 30% y/y in the previous two quarters. Nonetheless, exports to the EU accounted for 63% of total exports in the quarter.
Total exports in the rolling 12-month period ending June increased by 17% to €1.99bn, accelerating to the highest advance in nearly five years. Exports to the EU increased by 23% y/y to €1.29bn in the 12-month period. In contrast, the exports to Community of Independent States (CIS) increased by only 3% y/y, to €406mn in the period.
|EUR mn||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016||Q1/17||Q2 17|
|Source: BNS, Intellinews|