Moldova’s export growth decelerates to 5% y/y in Q2

Moldova’s export growth decelerates to 5% y/y in Q2
By bne IntelliNews August 8, 2017

Moldova’s exports increased by 5% y/y to €454mn in Q2, losing momentum from the 31% y/y advance in Q1, according to calculations based on data released by the statistics bureau BNS. Imports rose by 17% y/y, resulting in a 29% higher trade gap for the quarter compared to last year.

The country’s trade gap had already widened by 17% y/y to €472mn in Q1 and the €591mn gap in Q2 (29% up y/y) resulted in a significant deterioration of the external balance. 

The trade gap in the rolling 12 months ending June 2017 increased by 11% y/y to €1.96bn, and accounted for 32% of the country’s GDP. A large part of the trade gap is traditionally financed from wage remittances in Moldova. In the rolling 12 months ending June, the coverage ratio was 52% according to bne IntelliNews calculations (from a similar ratio of 53% calculated at the end of June 2016) as wage remittances increased by 6% y/y to $1.13bn in the period. The sharp widening of the trade gap in Q2 has thus not yet resulted in a significant deterioration of the coverage ratio.

Moldova’s exports to the European Union increased by 5% y/y in Q2 — a visible deceleration from the annual growth rates of over 30% y/y in the previous two quarters. Nonetheless, exports to the EU accounted for 63% of total exports in the quarter.

Total exports in the rolling 12-month period ending June increased by 17% to €1.99bn, accelerating to the highest advance in nearly five years. Exports to the EU increased by 23% y/y to €1.29bn in the 12-month period. In contrast, the exports to Community of Independent States (CIS) increased by only 3% y/y, to €406mn in the period.

FOREIGN TRADE              
EUR mn 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1/17 Q2 17
Total exports 1,672 1,824 1,772 1,773 1,849 496 454
CIS 719 695 556 444 374 99 101
EU 783 853 945 1,097 1,205 315 287
Other 170 276 272 232 270 81 66
Total imports 4,033 4,127 4,036 3,598 3,632 968 1,045
CIS 1,253 1,256 1,101 918 929 255 247
EU 1,797 1,858 1,946 1,765 1,782 461 529
Other 983 1,013 989 915 921 252 270
Total balance -2,360 -2,303 -2,264 -1,825 -1,784 -472 -591
y/y 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1/17 Q2 17
Total exports 5% 9% -3% 0% 4% 31% 5%
CIS 9% -3% -20% -20% -16% 29% 11%
EU 1% 9% 11% 16% 10% 31% 5%
Other 11% 62% -2% -15% 16% 36% -5%
Total imports 8% 2% -2% -11% 1% 24% 17%
Total balance 11% -2% -2% -19% -2% 17% 29%
Source: BNS, Intellinews              

Data

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