Citizens of Macedonia will vote on September 30 in a crucial referendum that will determine whether the country’s name will be changed to North Macedonia, which in turn will enable Macedonia to become the 30th Nato member and start EU accession negotiations next year.

The name change is part of the agreement reached with neighbouring Greece in June, which resolves the 27-year-old name dispute. Greece has objected for years to the use of the name Macedonia as it has a province in the north with the same name, a territory gained during the Balkan wars.

People in Macedonia are deeply divided about whether they will vote or boycott the plebiscite. However, according to opinion polls, the majority will vote for the name deal as a chance for the country that has waited so long in front of the EU and Nato's doors to make further progress in its Euro-Atlantic integration processes.

Others, who plan to boycott the vote, see the name deal as harmful and a threat to Macedonian national identity.

The question that will be posed is “Are you for EU and Nato integration by accepting the deal between the Republic of Macedonia and Republic of Greece?” Around 1.8mn people will be eligible to vote.

The main opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE, rejects the deal as harmful and thinks the referendum question is ambiguous. However, it has held back from urging its supporters to boycott the vote. 

This is positive for those seeking a yes vote, as the turnout in the referendum is crucial: for it to be successful 50% + one vote is needed. Polls suggest that under 58% of the electorate intend to vote.

Officials from the government are strongly campaigning to convince citizens that the deal is good for both sides, and will allow Macedonia to achieve economic progress and at the same time will preserve national identity, as in their identity documents the people will be called Macedonians/citizens of North Macedonia and the language will continue to be known as Macedonian.

Politicians divided

In his latest speech before the end of the campaign, 48 hours before the referendum, Social Democrat Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said on September 27 that people should make a historic decision on Sunday.

“You need to make a choice. Remember, it's not a choice between two political parties. It is a choice for your future, for the future of your children. It is a choice for the future of our beloved Macedonia,” Zaev said.

“I know, we need to make a concession and accept a geographical qualifier for the name Macedonia, but no one else can deny our identity,” the PM underlined.

He further went on “Our Macedonian language and identity are protected forever. The anthem, the flag remain the same. We are Macedonians and we will always be Macedonians!

“Let’s vote for European Macedonia,” the prime minister called on citizens to vote.

Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov, who has frequently been on TV lately to explain the benefits of the deal, said in his latest interview with broadcaster Kanal 5 on September 27 that a yes vote will put a “full stop to the identity challenges.”

The same day, President Gjorge Ivanov, who is close to the conservative VMRO-DPMNE, said in an address to the UN General Assembly in New York that he will not cast a vote in the referendum, saying that the country was being asked to commit "historical suicide".

"On September 30, I will not vote and I know that you, my fellow citizens, will make a similarly wise decision,” Ivanov said.

28 Macedonian rightwing political parties and NGOs led by the small pro-Russian United Macedonia party have also called for a boycott. 

VMRO-DPMNE decided on September 12 to leave citizens to decide on their own how to vote in the upcoming referendum but reiterated it is against the name deal, which it thinks is "capitulatory".

"The agreement is unacceptable for us, but this is an issue which is beyond parties’ interest, so we decided that every citizen should act according to their own conviction,” the party’s leader Hristijan Mickoski said in a statement.

However, following this announcement more than 20 opposition MPs announced on their Facebook accounts that they will boycott the referendum. In their patriotic posts they said how they love their country and for that reason will not vote for the "harmful agreement" that will endanger Macedonian identity.

International encouragement

Before the crucial vote, a dozen foreign politicians visited Skopje in to support the government and to send encouraging messages to people to accept the name deal as good for the country’s Euro-Atlantic prospects. Foreign officials who visited Macedonia include German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, EU High Representative Federica Mogherini and US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis.

French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country is skeptical about EU enlargement, sent a video message saying that the name deal is good for people in Macedonian.

If the referendum is successful, Macedonia will be renamed North Macedonia, which will require constitutional changes. This will unblock its EU and Nato integration processes. The agreement will then be sent to Greece, to be approved by the parliament in Athens.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias said earlier this month that he expects the name deal with Skopje to reach the Greek parliament in January 2019, according to Greek media.

Zaev has repeatedly said that the referendum should be seen as a last chance for the country to make progress in its EU and Nato integration processes or to face isolation.

However, the agreement first has to be passed by the Macedonian parliament, and even a yes vote doesn’t guarantee this would happen. For the changes to be passed, the parliament requires a two-thirds majority or 80 votes, which means some opposition MPs would need to support the changes. Currently the Social Democrats can rely on slightly over 70 votes.

VMRO-DPMNE leader Mickoski said on September 27 that if the threshold of 50% is not reached, the party will not support the constitutional changes.

According to the latest poll, over 76% of those polled support Macedonia to become an EU and Nato member. 48.6% support the name deal, while 33.2% believe that a better agreement could be reached in future.