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Latvian retail sales grew a calendar-adjusted 3.9% y/y in July, picking up speed on the 3.1% annual expansion recorded the previous month, data from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) showed on August 30.
July marked the 20th month in a row in which sales expanded. Growing retail sales are a positive sign for economic growth; their recent performance is close to the levels seen in 2015 when sales growth rarely fell below 4% y/y. In monthly terms, retail sales grew a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in June.
Latvia’s GDP expanded just 2% in 2016, a slowdown from 2.7% in 2015. However, the pace of growth accelerated to a seasonally adjusted 4.8% y/y in the second quarter, according to a flash estimate from late July. The reading strengthened the likelihood of economic growth pushing to 3.2% in 2017, as forecast by the European Commission.
The annual retail sales growth in July remained broad, with most segments expanding. Overall, sales of non-food products increased 3.3% y/y, while food sales gained 4.6% against annual growth of 4.7% and 1%, respectively, in June.
Real incomes are expected to continue to rise in Latvia, in turn pushing retail sales, as the labour market continues to tighten. The average gross monthly wage in Latvia gained 5% in 2016, compared to 6.8% in 2015. In the second quarter, wages grew 8.7% y/y.
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