Latvian GDP growth fades in Q1, but better to come suggest analysts

Latvian GDP growth fades in Q1, but better to come suggest analysts
By bne IntelliNews April 29, 2016

The Latvian economy grew a seasonally adjusted 1.3% y/y in the first quarter, a flash reading from the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) showed on April 29. Economic growth slowed in comparison to the 2.2% expansion reported for October-December, and was lower than any quarter last year.

However, analysts remain calm, forecasting acceleration through the year. On a quarterly basis GDP contracted 0.1%.
 
The disappointing result came despite 2.9% growth in transportation and storage and a 2.3% expansion in the retail sector. Manufacturing contributed with a 0.5% expansion. However, those gains were offset by a considerable dip in the construction sector, which contracted as much as 22%, according to the CSB. Seasonally unadjusted, growth came in at 1.8%.

Despite the weakness in the first quarter, the Latvian economy is forecast to accelerate to growth of 3.3% in 2016, benefiting from a rising contribution from exports and investment, according to Swedbank analysts. Strong wage growth, low inflation, new lending growth, and stable optimism should continue to drive household consumption, a major pillar of growth.

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