Kazakhstan’s economy stalls in January-September

By bne IntelliNews October 13, 2016

Kazakhstan's economic growth ground to a halt in January-September, as low energy and other commodity prices continue to hurt the oil-dependent country. The short-term economic indicator, a narrower gauge of annual GDP growth, remained unchanged on an annual basis in the first nine months of 2016, versus a 0.8% hike a year ago, the State Statistics Committee said on October 12. 

The indicator is based on the change in output indices in six basic sectors: agriculture, industry, construction, trade, transport and telecommunications. These sectors constitute 60% of GDP and so the short-term economic indicator gives an idea about the country's GDP expansion.

According to the data, investment in fixed assets increased 4.1% y/y to KZT5.07tn (€15.3bn) in the nine-month period. Industrial output shrank by 2% y/y to KZT13.2tn in the current prices. The volume of gross output in agriculture went up by 4.9% y/y to KZT2.504tn.

The transport sector expanded by 4% y/y, while the telecommunications sector contracted by 3.1% y/y and the volume of trade fell by 2.7% y/y.

The Kazakh government expects economic growth to sharply ease to 0.5% this year from 1.2% in 2015. The estimate is below the latest forecast of the Asian Development Bank that pitches growth just 0.1% y/y. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), however, is more optimistic projecting this year's growth at 0.8%.

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