Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.3% y/y in the first nine month of 2017, the prime minister’s website reported on October 18.
The figure is in line with the 4.2% growth recorded in the first half of 2017 and represents the ongoing recovery of the Kazakh economy after GDP expansion fell to 1% in 2016.
Astana is substantially reliant on increased oil production coupled with a bet on rising foreign investment to boost growth, while the mild economic recoveries of big trading partners such as Russia have helped to deliver more economic activity. The long-awaited relaunch of the giant Kashagan oil project in the Caspian Sea that took place in October 2016 has also helped to boost growth.
Industrial output rose by 8.3% y/y in the nine-month period. Kazakhstan saw high growth rates in the mining sector (11%) and manufacturing (4.7%).
The country is hoping to raise annual economic growth to 5.5% by 2021.
In 2016, crude oil production in Kazakhstan fell by 1.4% y/y to 65.5mn tonnes, while gas condensate production amounted to 12.4mn tonnes, giving a total of 78mn tonnes. The Kashagan oil field’s recommencement should allow Kazakhstan to raise oil output by an additional 5-7mn tonnes in 2017 from 2016's level. Overall, the government expects oil production will reach 85mn tonnes this year.
In August, the Kazakh central bank revised its 2017 GDP growth forecast from 2.8% to 3.1%.