High net worth Turks and capital flee Turkey as prospect of Erdogan Mark II nears

High net worth Turks and capital flee Turkey as prospect of Erdogan Mark II nears
Turk high net worth individuals and foreign capital are getting out of Turkey, with investors not wanting to take their chances under 'Executive' Erdogan. / Γιώργος Α. Παπανδρέου Πρωθυπουργός της Ελλάδας.
By bne IntelliNews June 19, 2018

Turks are joining foreign investors in shifting their assets—and in many cases themselves—out of the country amid fears for their money and security should President Recep Tayyip Erdogan win more power in the June 24 elections, Bloomberg wrote on June 19.

In 2017, 12% of Turkey’s millionaire population left, its report said, citing research by South Africa-based New World Wealth. With foreign diplomats in Turkey reporting large increases in requests for investor and student visas, the super-wealthy  are being joined by middle-class Turks in selling homes and other assets to buy businesses or real estate abroad to try and provide a better life for their families. Clearly many citizens of Turkey do not want to entrust their future to an Erdogan voted in as the country’s first executive president under constitutional changes that will make him hugely powerful.

Turkey lost more than 5,000 high net worth individuals (HNWI) for a second year running, with about 6,000 leaving in 2017, New World Wealth says. “These outflows are very concerning as Turkey is not producing many new HNWIs to replace the ones that are leaving,” its cited report said.

Net FDI in Turkey has, meanwhile, dropped to 2009 financial crisis levels, leaving Turkey more dependent on “hot money” inflows into stocks and bonds that can be withdrawn at a moment’s notice.

Bloomberg data shows foreigners have bought just $118mn worth of Turkish equities and government bonds in net terms this year, down 97% y/y. The outflow from equities has helped push the benchmark Borsa Istanbul 100 index down 35% in dollar-adjusted terms in the year to date, while less foreign buying in the bond market has pushed yields on 10-year Turkish bonds to a record high of over 17%.

Amid the collapse of the Turkish lira (TRY) which has greatly accelerated during this year, there has also been a mass move out of TRY savings and into dollar and euro accounts. Foreign currency deposits in banks spiked as local confidence in the lira was drained, central bank data showed. In the past five years, the TRY has lost more than 60% of its value against the dollar and 50% against the euro. More than half of the Turkish banking system’s deposits are now in foreign currency.

When the lira fell to below four to the dollar for the first time, in April 2018, the foreign debt owed by Turkish corporations maturing in less than a year stood at a three-year high of $125.5bn, according to official figures. Repaying that debt will become more and more difficult if authorities don’t find a way to restore confidence and turn the lira around, the financial news and media company concluded.

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