EBRD keeps Montenegro’s 2014 GDP forecast at 2.0%

By bne IntelliNews January 21, 2014

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Montenegro's economic growth to speed up to 2% in 2014 from 1.5% estimated for 2013, the bank said in the January edition of its Regional Economic Prospects keeping unchanged the forecasts from the previous edition of the report in November

In 2014 growth will be driven by both external and domestic demand, the bank said.

The EBRD’s 2014 outlook remains considerably less optimistic than the government’s expectations for a 3.6% GDP expansion this year. It is also below the latest projections ​of the EC and the World Bank for 2.3% and 2.5% growth in 2014, respectively.

Economic activity in Montenegro started recovering in the first half of 2013 underpinned by rising exports, the EBRD underscored. However, the country’s current account deficit remains among the region’s highest at around 20% of GDP.  Montenegro’s fiscal position has weakened after the payment of EUR 103mn of state guarantees on aluminium producer KAP’s loans in August 2013. The public debt has increased sharply in recent years, the EBRD also said.

Montenegro’s outlook will remain below the average for the SEE region in both 2013 and 2014 (of 2.0% and 2.1% respectively).

South East Europe, GDP, y/y,% 2012(e) 2013(f) 2014(f)
Albania 1.6 1.5 1.7
Bosnia -0.5 0.8 1.8
Bulgaria 0.8 0.7 1.8
Kosovo 2.5 2.5 3.5
Macedonia -0.3 3.0 3.0
Montenegro -0.5 1.5 2.0
Romania 0.7 2.5 2.4
Serbia -1.7 2.2 1.3
South East Europe 0.4 2.0 2.1
Source: EBRD, REP January 2014      

Related Articles

Evolution Equity Partners closes $125mn cybersecurity-focused fund

Evolution Equity Partners announced on 17 July the final closing of a new fund with total capital commitments of $125mn to make investments in cybersecurity and next generation enterprise software ... more

Montenegrin court seizes passports of opposition leaders accused of coup attempt

Montenegro’s high court has seized the passports of two opposition leaders accused of plotting a coup as a precautionary measure. Andrija Mandic and Milan Knezevic – two of the leaders of the ... more

Russians continue to holiday in Montenegro despite warnings from Russian foreign ministry

The summer tourism season in Montenegro started earlier than expected and indicates that this year the revenue will exceed €1bn – the ... more

Dismiss