Slovak unemployment inched further down to 3.88% in March
1 day ago
Romania’s fob/cif trade gap (goods only) widened by 12% y/y in May and by 18% y/y in April-May, in line with the 18% y/y increase in Q1, according to data released by the statistics office on July 10.
The bulk of the deficit is driven by the net import of chemicals. The chemical industry had a €2.9bn trade gap, out of a total deficit of €4.5bn. Natural gas price liberalisation followed by the closure of most of the country’s fertiliser plants, and the dire situation at Oltchim petrochemical plant have resulted in insufficient domestic production and wide deficits.
In the past 12 months ending May, the trade gap was €10.6bn (around 6% of GDP), 11% more than in the previous 12 months. In fob/fob terms, more relevant for Balance of Payments purposes, the trade gap in the trailing 12 months was €7.7bn (12% up y/y), nearly 4.5% of GDP.
The trade gap was driven by rising imports on the back of robust demand from consumption fuelled by higher disposable incomes and low interest rates. Imports increased by 18% y/y in May and by 11.6% y/y in April-May compared to the 12.4% advance in q1. Compared to exports, imports rose faster; exports increased by only 10.4% y/y in April-May and 11.5% y/y in Q1.
| Jan-May 2017 (EUR mn) | Export FOB | % | y/y | Import CIF | % | y/y | Balance |
| TOTAL | 25,812 | 100.0 | 11.1% | 30,280 | 100.0 | 12.0% | -4,468 |
| Food, beverages and tobacco | 1,807 | 7.0 | 2.3% | 2,725 | 9.0 | 17.2% | -918 |
| Raw materials | 826 | 3.2 | 14.6% | 1,060 | 3.5 | 22.5% | -234 |
| Fuel, lubricants, etc. | 929 | 3.6 | 14.2% | 1,968 | 6.5 | 48.6% | -1,039 |
| Chemicals and similar | 1,187 | 4.6 | 13.5% | 4,057 | 13.4 | 4.2% | -2,870 |
| Transport equipment and vehicles | 12,364 | 47.9 | 10.6% | 11,173 | 36.9 | 9.9% | 1,191 |
| Other manufacturated products | 8,699 | 33.7 | 12.7% | 9,296 | 30.7 | 9.9% | -597 |
| Non-food | 24,005 | 93.0 | 11.8% | 27,555 | 91.0 | 11.5% | -3,549 |
| Source: INS |
| Foreign Trade ( €mn ) | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Q4 16 | Q1 17 | Apr-17 | May-17 | Apr-May |
| FOB Exports | 49,562 | 52,460 | 54,597 | 57,385 | 14,707 | 15,461 | 4,774 | 5,578 | 10,352 |
| 10.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 19.3% | 10.4% | |
| CIF Imports | 55,269 | 58,508 | 62,961 | 67,342 | 17,734 | 17,778 | 5,824 | 6,683 | 12,506 |
| 1.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 18.0% | 11.6% | |
| FOB Imports* | 52,991 | 56,096 | 60,365 | 64,566 | 17,003 | 17,045 | 5,584 | 6,407 | 11,991 |
| FOB/CIF Balance | -5,707 | -6,049 | -8,364 | -9,957 | -3,027 | -2,318 | -1,050 | -1,105 | -2,155 |
| Balance y/y | -40.8% | 6.0% | 38.3% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 18.5% | 24.5% | 11.8% | 17.6% |
| FOB/FOB Balance* | -3,428 | -3,637 | -5,768 | -7,180 | -2,296 | -1,585 | -810 | -829 | -1,639 |
| Balance y/y | -53.5% | 6.1% | 58.6% | 24.5% | 7.0% | 22% | 31.8% | 10% | 19.7% |
| Source: INS, BNR, *estimates |
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