Turkey’s business sentiment index declined for a fifth consecutive month in August, taking it down to 96.4 and marking the lowest level recorded since January 2014, central bank data showed on August 27.

The data comes with analysts widely expecting Turkey, struggling with an ongoing currency crisis, to move into recession by next year. Standard & Poor’s has predicted that the forecast recession could shrink the country’s GDP from around to $850bn to $594bn, the lowest level recorded since 2006.

The 100-point level on the index separates optimism from pessimism. Turkish business confidence stayed in optimistic territory for 18 uninterrupted months from February 2017 through to July 2018.

The index declined by 6.13% m/m in August from 102.7 in July, the sharpest monthly decline seen since October 2011.

It was recorded at 103.3 in December last year, from which point it gradually increased to its 2018 peak of 111.9 in March.

Each of the business sentiment survey’s eight main sub-indices also deteriorated in August month on month. The sharpest monthly decline, of 17%, was seen in participants’ assesments of the general business situation.

Meanwhile, the seasonally-adjusted business confidence index declined by 5% m/m to 96.3.

The adjusted index saw 110.9 points in January before posting declines for the next six months.

The central bank also reported on August 27 that the capacity utilisation rate (CUR) of Turkey's manufacturing industry rose to 77.8% in August from 77.1% in July.

The day also saw statistics institute TUIK announce that seasonally adjusted business sentiment in construction, retail and services deteriorated sharply in August.

The seasonally-adjusted services confidence index decreased by 4.2% m/m to 88; the retail confidence index declined by 4% m/m to 93.4 and the construction confidence index decreased by as much as 10.7% m/m to 68.8.