Bosnias consumer prices increased by 2.1% y/y on average in 2010, compared to an average annual deflation of 0.4% in 2009, statistics office data showed. The highest increase was registered in the transport prices that grew by an average of 7.1% in 2010, after falling by 9.9% a year earlier. Moreover, the food prices lowered their decline by 0.2pps y/y to 0.7% y/y. In December alone, the consumer prices rose by 3.1% y/y, speeding up from 2.3% in November. The food prices had the strongest impact on the faster growth, as they speeded up their rise by 1.8pps m/m to 3.9% y/y. In monthly comparison, the consumer prices increased by 0.8% in December, following the 0.3% m/m rise in November. We note that the statistics office of Bosnias Serb Republic announced an inflation of 3.1% y/y in December, (from 2.4% y/y in November), while the consumer prices in the Muslim-Croat Federation accelerated their expansion by 0.8pps to 3.1% y/y. Intellinews comment: We believe that the consumer prices growth evident in 2010 was caused by external factors (dynamics of crude oil prices at the global markets) rather than by rising domestic demand. The latter, however, might be expected to revive in 2011, supported by recovering economy and lending growth. Thus, some inflation acceleration might be evident in 2011. Still, we do not expect it to surpass the moderate levels.
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