Russian state-owned national carrier Aeroflot's market share topped 50%  but the Federal Anti-monopoly Service (FAS) says that is not a problem, reports Vedomosti.

Under Russian rules, any company that gains more than 20% market share has to apply to FAS for approval to enjoy what are considered monopolistic powers on the market.

Aeroflot saw its market share jump last year following the bankruptcy of Transaero, one of Russia's first commercial airlines to launch in the early 90s. Aeroflot took over many of the airlines routes and will probably get more assets as the company is liquidated.

"The fact that Aeroflot’s share has exceeded 50% is not serious,"  the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service Igor Artemyev said in comments reported by TASS. "The situation is considered as temporary," he added.

The Federal Air Transport Agency reassigned more than 50 of Transaero's routes to Aeroflot but only for one year. "We do not consider it eternal," Artemyev said, adding that "54% is not 74%".

FAS said it will take no action for the meantime other than monitor Aeroflot's prices more closely. If FAS notices unjustified increases in prices for the tickets, it will raise the issue not only on prices but also on the structural reform of the company, Artemyev warned.

Despite the collapse in Russia's tourism business, Aeroflot is flourishing. Aeroflot passenger turnover increases 11.6% y/y in January despite the almost same sized contraction for the sector as a whole, which saw turnover decrease by 11.9% in January

The crisis is seeing Aeroflot consolidate its hold over the business, especially on domestic routes where passenger turnover increased 19.1% y/y in January compared with a 3.4% increase for the sector as  a whole.

International routes did less well but were still growing by 2.7% in January against a -21.7% collapse for the sector on the back of the deep devaluation of the ruble.

Russians have turned inward for their holidays and the rapid development of Aeroflot's low cost carrier Pobeda ('Victory') are the key growth drivers for the company. Passenger load factor improved 1.6 ppts to 74.1%, which reflects well on the company's operating efficiency. Aeroflot reported solid operating data, although the incorporation of Transaero will provide a high base for future growth, reports Sberbank CIB.

 

Aeroflot - KEY METRICS
	2014	2015E	2016E	2017E
Financials, $ mln
Revenues	8,284	6,359	6,633	7,055
EBITDA 643	563	168	651	503
EBITDA margin	8%	3%	10%	7%
Net income	-$401.00	-512	202	149
EPS (adj), cents	-37.92	48.43	19.1	14.09
Div/share, $	0	0	0	0
Valuation, Gearing and Yield
EV/EBITDA	5.2	21.8	4.9	5.7
P/E	neg	neg	3.3	4.5
P/CF	0.7	1.2	0.9	1.1
Net debt/EBITDA	4.1	17.2	3.7	4.2
Dividend yield	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Growth
Revenues	-9%	-23%	4%	6%
EBITDA	-36%	-74%	289%	-23%
EPS (adj)	0%	0%	0%	-26%
Main Shareholders
Russian Federation	51.20%
Rostec	3.60%
Treasury shares	5.10%
Free float	40.20%
Website	http://www.aeroflot.ru

Aeroflot IFRS results, R bln
	9m15	9m14	y-o-y	9m15E	A/E	9m15C	A/C	3Q15	3Q14	y-o-
Revenues	309.5	236.7	30.80%	295.9	4.60%	299.5	3.30%	133	96.4	38.00%
Operating expenses	-272.7	-223	22.30%	-277.9	-1.90%	-	-	-102.1	-81.4	25.50%
Operating income	36.8	13.7	169.40%	18.1	103.90%	-	-	30.9	15	105.60%
EBITDA	47.8	23.6	103.10%	29.3	63.50%	36.9	29.80%	34.5	18.5	86.40%
EBITDA margin	15.50%	10.00%		9.90%	-	12.30%	-	26.00%	19.20%	-
EBITDAR	79.2	40.2	97.10%	60.5	31.00%	-	-	45.9	23.5	95.30%
EBITDAR margin	25.60%	17.00%		20.40%	-	-	-	34.50%	24.40%	-
Net income before minorities	1.8	-3.6	n/m	-3.6	n/m	-	-	5.4	-1.7	n/m
Adjusted net income*	27.8	12.9	115.80%	-	-	-	-	24.4	12.5	95.00%
Note: Adjusted for FX revaluation, losses on derivatives and one-offs.
Source: Company, Interfax, Sberbank CIB Investment Research